Global Market Snapshot 11th November 2024

In the forex market this week, the US dollar continued to rise, while the Japanese yen kept declining due to interest rate differential pressure. The British pound and the euro were significantly influenced by policy news fluctuations. As the market reevaluated the economic policy direction of the new US administration, uncertainty led to continuous fluctuations in the major currency pairs. Additionally, although the Canadian dollar was supported by Canadian employment data, the pressure brought on by oil price volatility remained significant.

This week, the US Dollar Index performed robustly, posting a weekly gain of 0.68%. After Trump won the presidential election, the market broadly anticipated that his economic policies would promote growth and inflation, although significant uncertainty remains regarding the specific details of these policies. The dollar briefly touched a four-month high of 105.44 before slightly retreating to close at 105.01, achieving a weekly increase of 0.58%. The Consumer Confidence Index released on last Friday showed that US confidence reached a seven-month high, reflecting the market’s optimistic expectations for economic prospects.

USDJPY exchange rate saw a slight decline of 0.23% this week, closing at 153.53 yen. The interest rate differential between Japan and the United States continues to widen, which is expected to exert long-term pressure on the yen. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again, and the Bank of Japan may follow suit in December to prevent the yen from falling to a 30-year low against the dollar. The Bank of Japan, facing the risk of yen depreciation, may take policy action to stabilize the exchange rate.

GBPUSD exchange rate showed significant volatility this week due to uncertainties surrounding trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. Although some investors remain optimistic about the pound’s trajectory, concerns about the potential for UK economic growth are still apparent. The post-Brexit policy direction remains unclear, particularly in terms of trade arrangements with the EU. The Bank of England’s policy stance is also closely watched, as further monetary easing could put downward pressure on the pound.

EURSUD This week, the EUR/USD fell by 0.85%, closing at 1.0712 dollars, with a weekly decline of 1.12%. The collapse of Germany’s ruling coalition has undermined market confidence, putting pressure on the euro. Political instability within Germany has created downward pressure on the euro, in addition to the eurozone’s overall weak economic growth. Market expectations for the euro’s long-term performance remain cautious. The euro continues to face pressure from economic growth, lacking strong factors to drive an increase in the short term. The slow economic recovery in the eurozone and the divergence in central bank policies have added complexity to monetary policy, further suppressing the euro’s movement.

USDCAD This week, the Canadian dollar appeared somewhat weak amidst the broader strengthening of the US dollar, but strong Canadian employment data provided some support, while oil price volatility added pressure. The CAD/USD exchange rate remained largely unchanged as the market awaited future trends in the oil market. The resilience shown by Canada’s job market attracted some investors, but due to recent oil price fluctuations, the Canadian dollar was unable to rebound significantly. Given Canada’s high dependence on oil exports, unstable oil prices will continue to impact the performance of the Canadian dollar.

BTC Bitcoin showed no sign of fatigue, entering record-high levels above $80,000 over the weekend.